Holygrail trading
STOCKMARKET PREDICTIONS
knightrader's _________________________________________________________
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june 11
LONG 1345 INTO TODAYS CLOSE | Got to try buying medium term support for a reversal from the morning lows |
june 4
LONG AT 1381.1 -BET EXPIRES AT 3.50PM UPDATE 2.36PM -LONG 1377.9 BET EXPIRES AT 3.50PM- as i said a drop to the low later but i think we will close up today if i am wrong i'm wrong Todays pattern indicates a high at end of day | I am anticipating a break through 1383 resistance today although we might see a drop to the lows again before we break it.Most traders will be banking on resistance holding and market is designed to get you going the wrong way.Incidently yesterdays suprising drop and how it relates to fibonacci MON LOW 1377.7 - 0.618%= 1369.I - TUES LOW WAS 1370.1 MON HIGH 1393.1 - 1.618% = 1370.5 |
june 3
Some more fibonacci discussion on todays levels - todays pattern choppy,sideways drifting up with possible late selloff,profit taking. | MON LOW - 1377.7 + 0.618% = 1386.2 (todays low is 1385.7 so far) MON CLOSE - 1385.6 + 0.382% = 1390.8 (poss close today) 1385.6 + 0.618% = 1394.1 (poss high/close today) MON HIGH 1399.6 -0.382% = 1394.2 (poss high/close today) 1399.6 - 0.618% = 1390.9 (poss close today) |
june 2
LONG AT 1389.3 INTO TODAYS CLOSE LONG AT 1384.8 INTO TODAYS CLOSE LONG AT 1384.8 INTO FRIDAYS CLOSE | Following the fibonacci idea below, 1389.3 is 0.618% from fridays low and 0.764% from fridays close.Todays predicted pattern shows a reversal from the morning low to a high around 2.30pm and dropping from there into the close. FRIDAYS LOW 1398.0- 0.618%= 1389.3 1398.0- 1.000%= 1384.0 (todays low so far 1384.8) FRIDAYS CLOSE 1400.3- 0.764%= 1389.6 |
may 30
Where do you buy dips in an uptrend? Could you trade without charts or indicators? (The famous trader Jesse Livermore was a tape reader,using ohlc only).Most traders use them and lose. Consider the following-buying dips in an uptrend using fibonacci ratios:
TUES LOW 1373.0 (1373.0 + 0.382% = 1378.2)
WEDS LOW 1378.1 (1378.1 + 0.764% = 1388.6)
THURS LOW 1388.5 (1388.5 + 0.618% = 1397.0) - TODAYS LOW SO FAR IS 1398.0
What about trading eod betting from close to close?
TUES CLOSE 1385.3 (1385.3 + 0.382% = 1390.5)
WEDS CLOSE 1390.8 (1390.8 + 0.618% = 1399.3)
THURS CLOSE 1398.2 ( 1398.2 +0.618% = 1406.8-- yesterdays high was 1406.3)
1398.2 +0.764% = 1409.2 Todays high/close might be? - if we hit 1406/9 today it should be around 2.30pm as todays chart is bang on target regarding the predicted pattern,which is choppy sideways edging higher in the afternoon.ADV vol confirms the pattern,being only 55%. Hope the above has given you food for thought as all the historical data ohlc is riddled with fib ratios.Why not spend some time investigating over the weekend! I will update this little piece after the close or over the weekend.
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may 28
| 10.10am- I AM LONG AT 1382.8 INTO THE CLOSE -1390.8 (won) | With yesterdays close above the 1383 resistance i am looking at 1383 as support now.UPDATE CLOSE- With a strong close today it's now a case of buying 1383 again if we drop there or shorting next resistance at 1410.If you were still holding at 1383 as a swing trade you would be looking to take profit at 1410,or possibly 1400 which was a 'line in the sand' before we hit the recent high at 1440. |
may 27
Expect to see some changes to this site over the next few days.As for trading today,i will be looking to buy 1364 support or sell 1383 resistance.Having run extensive backtests over the extended holiday weekend just trading medium term technical levels into the close produces better results than attempting to predict intraday price movement .This is because with fixed odds you need to pick an exit time,so you can get direction right but timing wrong which gives Betonmarkets more of an edge against you.The close is one fixed point in time and will either close above or below support/resistance.UPDATE 10AM- due a technical fault i am unable to upload charts on the prediction page.But i can tell you that todays pattern is inverting from last time which was down and flat most of the day.So today we are up and its likely to be sideways from late morning to close.That would make selling 1383 (should we reach it) into the close too risky for me today(bearing in mind commission on the bet is about 2.5 points) Also, i would say that fridays close is statistically likely to be above last weeks close according to that research i mentioned earlier. | UPDATE-CLOSE- With todays close above 1383 resistance (1385.3) 1383 is now support with next resistance at 1410. Now you can see why i was reluctant to short 1383 today,particularly as i predicted we would close near the morning high.If your strategy tells you to do nothing on any given day,remember staying out is a position.It will cost you a lot in the market to really appreciate that statement so i wont waste my time banging on about it.So why didnt i buy near the previous close when we dropped there? 2 reasons, 1)- i was only interested in buying 1364 support and 2)- we could very easily have remained sideways near the low from late morning as the predicted pattern indicated sideways from late morning.As always,you must draw your own conclusions.I will look to buy 1383 and sell 1410. |
may 23
LONG 10AM TO 10.30AM ENTRY 1383.9 EXIT (1380.8) lost SHORT 11.10AM TO 12.20 ENTRY 1379.0 EXIT (1377.7) won SHORT 11.10AM TO 12.30 ENTRY 1379.0 EXIT (1377.8) won | Gotta try buying medium term support (1383) for a quick bounce-UPDATE 11..12AM GOING SHORT NOW SUPPORT HAS FAILED |
may 22
Now that support at 1410 has failed things are looking decidedly bearish following yesterdays selloff after the FOMC meeting.Support is at 1383 and yesterdays close is not that far away from there(1390.7) .If support fails to hold then this uptrend is likely over so that level is crucial to watch and trade accordingly.At the moment the BULL% indicator is still 'bull confirmed' at 50.2% but is in a downtrend.Short term momentum is oversold.Volume has been getting bigger for this downtrend-3.6,3.8 and 4.5 on mon tues and weds respectively.The most obvious trade is to attempt to sell 1410 which is now resistance-sell rallies.
may 20
Yesterdays selloff at the 1438 resistance level may have just been profit taking or it may be a warning that we are not going higher.Although we crossed the 200 day moving average briefly,we may have seen a top here that may get tested again soon.Futures are in the red and TODAYS PREDICTION shows a drop in early trading and then a reversal from mid day into the close to end almost unchanged on the day.UPDATE 10.20AM-I AM LONG AT 1416.6-(1416 has been support recently so i am taking advantage of this dip and will buy again if we drop to 1410 medium term support)UPDATE CLOSE- Another breakeven day with one long outstanding at 1409.4 into weds close which is winning at the moment.Todays predicted path was only half right but support and resistance levels are the most important thing to trade by. | LONG 10.20AM TO 3.30PM ENTRY- 1416.6 EXIT -1413.4 (lost) LONG 12 TO 3.30PM ENTRY-1413.0 EXIT - 1413.4 (won) LONG 7.20PM to weds close ENTRY 1409.4 EXIT - 1390.7 (lost) |
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may 16
Bear market rallys tend to be stronger than you think so i wouldn't be suprised if we get near 1438 today.The first move this morning may be a fade and there might be a sharp turn around 11am.That might translate into buying the early dip or selling the current top around 1320-3.I would prefer to buy the dip if here is one but i am away until tuesday and wont be trading.When i get back i will be looking at ways to improve this site and any suggestions are welcome.Nice to end the week with a winner (long at 1408.1 into yesterdays close)
may 15
Yesterdays suprising selloff was around the high of last week (1321.5) and was probably profit taking,so we now have a double top resistance area there.However,we need to close above 1410 now to have a chance at hitting next resistance at 1438.That is of course assuming that the top is not already in and we are heading down.I have an outstanding long position into todays close at 1408.1 since we are making higher highs/lows this week.A close under 1400 puts this rally in doubt.
may 14
LONG 12.10 TO 2.30PM ENTRY 1415.7 EXIT (1418.1) won LONG 12.10 TO 3.30PM ENTRY 1415.7 EXIT (1411.8) lost | I wouldn't attempt to short this rally today as last time this pattern appeared it kept going up all day.Looking at todays chart the biggest resistance level was 1416 which is near where i bought.If we drop down again we might see 1416 become support (see example of this setup below.So in other words i bought resistance today on a day where i knew the predicted pattern was for a rally all day.UPDATE 3.40PM- well,i planned my trade and traded my plan and came out breakeven- no complaints! UPDATE CLOSE- I went long just before the close at 1408.1 into tomorrows close |
may 13
Yesterdays close above the key 'line line in the sand' 1400 level adds strength to the current rally.with the next targets 1410 and 1438.Recently i have been making more and varied types of trades to the detriment of my account.I intend to reverse this tendency and concentrate on the most simple basic setups as shown here from yesterdays chart: BUY WHEN PREVIOUS RESISTANCE BECOMES SUPPORT DURING AN UPTREND Look for 1400 to become support today or in the near future |  |
